Liverpool next Champions League opponent in doubt after Man City collapse as draw boost clarified

Liverpool are still no nearer to knowing who they could be facing in the Champions League knockout stages

The draw card of Liverpool for the 2024/25 Champions

Liverpool may have serenely made their way to the Champions League knockout stages but behind them very little has been decided ahead of next week’s final round of matches. The Reds secured their place in the top eight and direct progress to the last 16 in March with a 2-1 home victory over Lille on Tuesday night.

With Arne Slot’s side having won all seven matches to stand top of the new-look opening stage, they are also guaranteed a top-two finish which means it is already possible to plot their route to the final.

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Well, sort of. That the group stage has been replaced by a single 36-team league means the majority of the teams are closely packed together with the biggest gap in the table coming both at the top – Liverpool stand three points ahead of Barcelona – and the bottom, where both Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys are three points adrift.

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Those finishing in the top eight qualify directly for the last 16, with the final eight places determined by two-legged play-offs next month featuring the teams who ended between ninth and 24th inclusive.

And here’s where it becomes interesting for Liverpool. UEFA have already loosely determined the path for the knockout stage draw which in theory makes it easier for teams who finish higher up the table to reach the final.

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For example, Liverpool will not be able to face the other team that finishes in the top two – at present likely to be Barcelona – until the final in Munich on May 31. And the Reds also know who they could be facing in the last 16.

Well, sort of. The draw is split into four separate mini-draws, which sounds complicated when written down but is a lot more straightforward in practice.

Liverpool will join the second-placed team in playing the winner of one of two play-off games – either the victor in the tie between the teams that finish 15th or 16th, or the winner of the tie between 17th and 18th. At present, that would mean the Reds facing one of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus or Celtic.

Except, of course, everything will change on the final matchday. Remarkably, only three points separate the team in the eighth and final automatic qualification place – Bayer Leverkusen – and the one in the final play-off place of 24th, which is Stuttgart.

In theory, it means means approaching half of the 36-team league could still finish in the four places that would make them possible opponents for Liverpool in the last 16.

One of those, though, will not be Manchester City, whose 4-2 defeat at Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday night having been 2-0 ahead means they can at the most reach 11 points, which would take them only to 19th place at the very highest.

But the likes of PSG, Aston Villa, Borussia Dortmund, Lille, PSV Eindhoven, Benfica, Sporting Lisbon and Slot’s former club Feyenoord could yet emerge as potential opponents for the Reds in the last 16.

The only round in which Liverpool are guaranteed home advantage in the second leg is the round of 16. While any possible further opponents will be determined by the already-established knockout path, a draw will take place to decide who plays at home in the second leg in both the quarter-final and semi-final.

All clear? Probably not. But the only certainty is Liverpool will be a team everyone else will want to avoid when the knockout stages kick into action.