Supercomputer Predicts Winners of 2024-25 Champions League Arsenal leapfrog Liverpool and Manchester City 

 

 

UEFA Champions League

Summary

 

Supercomputer predicts which team will win the 2024-25 Champions League.

 

Liverpool and Arsenal are both among the favourites after impressive finishes in the competition’s first-ever league phase.

 

Real Madrid and Manchester City are still given a shot at winning the tournament, despite their underwhelming performances so far.

 

The 2024-25 Champions League knockout stages are upon us and fans and pundits alike continue making their predictions for the continent’s showpiece club competition. While many expected Real Madrid to continue their dominance after getting the long-anticipated Kylian Mbappe deal over the line this summer, Los Blancos have stumbled a little and Liverpool’s incredible start to the tournament has led to many believing Arne Slot’s men could go all the way.

 

Following the conclusion of the controversial new league phase, which has seen the likes of Brest and Monaco arise as potential surprise packages, The Sun’s Supercomputer has simulated the rest of the campaign in order to predict which club is most likely to end the season as champions of Europe. The data experts have put together an interesting dissection of where each team is most likely to finish in the league phase of the tournament based on their run-throughs, while also ranking the teams in order of who are the favourites to go all the way and lift the crown.

 

Their information has been collected from 10,000 simulations to ascertain which team has the best odds based on their current predicament. While some sets of supporters will look at their chances with an element of disappointment, others may find themselves pleasantly surprised about just how well they are predicted to do.

 



 

Related

 

New Champions League Format: Everything you need to know about the 2024/25 campaign

 

Final League Phase Table

 

A reminder of where things stand right now upon the conclusion of the league phase

 



 

The opening league stage has wrapped up, with eight matchdays determining the teams that will directly advance to the knockout rounds (the top eight) and those who will need to play a playoff to secure a spot in the Round of 16 (ranks 9th to 24th). It’s a good time to recap how things ended.

 

Key highlights include Liverpool and Barcelona finishing in first and second, putting them in the best position for an easier path to the final in Munich. Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and surprise package Lille followed closely behind, with Lille notably shocking last season’s champions, Real Madrid, with an incredible 1-0 win.

 

On the other hand, teams that didn’t meet expectations and now face an extra match to earn a place in the Round of 16 include the aforementioned reigning European champions, Bayern Munich, PSG, and Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s side had to mount a dramatic second-half comeback against Club Brugge to secure their progress on the final matchday. See the final table below:

 

Pos

 

Team

 

Pts

 

1

 

Liverpool

 

21

 

2

 

Barcelona

 

19

 

3

 

Arsenal

 

19

 

4

 

Inter Milan

 

19

 

5

 

Atletico Madrid

 

18

 

6

 

Bayer Leverkusen

 

16

 

7

 

LOSC Lille

 

16

 

8

 

Aston Villa

 

16

 

9

 

Atalanta

 

15

 

10

 

Borussia Dortmund

 

15

 

11

 

Real Madrid

 

15

 

12

 

Bayern Munich

 

15

 

13

 

AC Milan

 

15

 

14

 

PSV

 

14

 

15

 

PSG

 

13

 

16

 

Benfica

 

13

 

17

 

Monaco

 

13

 

18

 

Brest

 

13

 

19

 

Feyenoord

 

13

 

20

 

Juventus

 

12

 

21

 

Celtic

 

12

 

22

 

Manchester City

 

11

 

23

 

Sporting Lisbon

 

11

 

24

 

Club Brugge

 

11

 

Favourites to Win Champions League

 

Arsenal tipped to end long search for first major European honour

 

 

The Supercomputer predicts that Arsenal will carry their league-phase momentum all the way to victory at the Allianz Arena. The Gunners are forecasted to go all the way, with Mikel Arteta finally taking the club to a major honour in the form of one the north London side have been mocked for throughout their entire existence. Or at least that is the case in 24% of occasions.

 

GIVEMESPORT Key Statistic: Four of the last five Champions League finals have been won by a scoreline of 1-0, with Real Madrid’s 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund in 2023/24 being the only exception.

 

Arsenal, notoriously, have never won a European trophy, a fact that has become a frequent source of humor for rival fans. But while they have become confined to the runners-up spot in recent years, that title has been given to current Premier League leaders Liverpool. They have been given a 19% chance of lifting an English record-extending seventh title.

 

Despite a torrid run of form recently, Manchester City still feature inside the top eight most likely teams to go all the way to the grand finale. As do Real Madrid, who have struggled in the tournament as of late. Both sides will need to progress through the playoff format, but the supercomputer has tipped them to do just that and have given the Spanish giants an 11% chance to City’s 7%.

 



 

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5

 

PSG and Barcelona are expected to progress far. As are Bayern Munich and Inter Milan, with Aston Villa and last season’s Europa League finalists Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen falling short of the top 8 most likely winners. Interestingly, Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, and Juventus – despite their pedigree on the continent – have been given just a 1% chance of glory.

 

Elsewhere, Celtic have been handed a 4% chance of making it past the playoffs, while Brest, PSV, Monaco, Feyenoord, and Club Brugge are tipped to face an impossible task of even making the semi-final.

 

Favourites to win 2024/25 Champions League

 

Rank

 

Team

 

Round of 16

 

Quarter-final

 

Semi-final

 

Final

 

Winner

 

1

 

Arsenal

 

100%

 

84%

 

59%

 

39%

 

24%

 

2

 

Liverpool

 

100%

 

71%

 

50%

 

34%

 

19%

 

3

 

Real Madrid

 

75%

 

55%

 

34%

 

19%

 

11%

 

4

 

Barcelona

 

100%

 

63%

 

38%

 

19%

 

9%

 

5

 

PSG

 

88%

 

45%

 

25%

 

15%

 

8%

 

6

 

Bayern Munich

 

70%

 

48%

 

28%

 

14%

 

7%

 

7

 

Manchester City

 

51%

 

37%

 

20%

 

12%

 

7%

 

8

 

Inter Milan

 

100%

 

70%

 

37%

 

14%

 

5%

 

9

 

Aston Villa

 

100%

 

59%

 

26%

 

8%

 

3%

 

10

 

Bayer Leverkusen

 

100%

 

34%

 

19%

 

7%

 

3%

 

11

 

Atalanta

 

74%

 

46%

 

13%

 

5%

 

2%

 

12

 

Atletico Madrid

 

100%

 

25%

 

11%

 

3%

 

1%

 

13

 

Borussia Dortmund

 

66%

 

36%

 

8%

 

2%

 

1%

 

14

 

Juventus

 

60%

 

18%

 

6%

 

2%

 

1%

 

15

 

Sporting Lisbon

 

43%

 

22%

 

7%

 

2%

 

0%

 

16

 

AC Milan

 

56%

 

14%

 

4%

 

1%

 

0%

 

17

 

Benfica

 

70%

 

15%

 

5%

 

1%

 

0%

 

18

 

LOSC Lille

 

100%

 

33%

 

7%

 

1%

 

0%

 

19

 

PSV

 

45%

 

8%

 

2%

 

0%

 

0%

 

20

 

Monaco

 

32%

 

6%

 

2%

 

0%

 

0%

 

21

 

Feyenoord

 

39%

 

6%

 

1%

 

0%

 

0%

 

22

 

Club Brugge

 

18%

 

5%

 

0%

 

0%

 

0%

 

23

 

Celtic

 

4%

 

0%

 

0%

 

0%

 

0%

 

24

 

Brest

 

10%

 

0%

 

0%

 

0%

 

0%